Kenya's disputed election and China

http://www.economist.com/world/africa/displaystory.cfm?story_id=10653924

This article from The Economist seems to argue from a constructivist viewpoint in saying that China refuses to send an envoy to encourage peace in Kenya because of norms against violating another country’s sovereignty and because of its own self-perceived identity as a non-interfering nation. There could also be a domestic political liberal argument here - that Chinese opposition to interference in others’ internal affairs has been a frequently used policy in the recent past and upsetting that pattern would bring about domestic protest. However, I was wondering if there are also realist arguments for China’s choice in this matter. For instance, China could be following a structural realist policy and avoiding any sort of aggressive or interfering behavior that might trigger balancing among other countries. It could also be using a calculated power-maximization strategy by waiting for the violence to subside and either Kibaki or Odinga to emerge as the clear winner of the struggle, in which case they can make an ally out of Kenya no matter how its domestic politics are constituted. If China is truly being this careful in cultivating alliances, that is probably evidence of a policy of balancing against the United States. The argument that China is behaving as a realist would expect it to behave is supported by the fact that China refuses to fix the election crisis but has agreed to modernize Kenya’s military (also a domestic interference, in a way). Providing money and weapons to Kenya will strengthen ties between the two countries and, if Kenya forms an alliance with China, increase the overall hard power available to China – a balancing strategy on two counts.

The other thing that interested me in this article was the mention of Kenya’s trading partners in the final paragraph. Kenya maintains its strongest economic ties with two Western nations and China. While this is smart foreign and economic policy on Kenya’s part, it also seems to be evidence for the complex interdependence theory – with this much economic interdependence, it would not be in any of the countries’ financial interests to create a conflict that would disrupt trade and cut off foreign markets.