October Surprise?

This November, American voters will decide the next President of the United States, and likely, will affect how the world views America, its citizens, and its government. After eight years of Bush Administration foreign policy, domestic and foreign opinion of the US government is overwhelmingly negative. Optimism for the future of America as a world hegemony has declined, and indeed some see the United Sates as less secure than ever in the wake of the Iraq war.

For President Bush and his legacy, none of this news bodes well. The current President has created an enduring image, for himself and the Republican Party, as strong on security, if not basely militaristic. At the peak of his popularity, President Bush managed fear and the threat of war to create a cohesive block of voters. (Certainly war was not his only draw: i.e. evangelical Christians and wealthy taxpayers also found appeal in the Republic candidate, ostensibly strong on moral values and fiscal responsibility.)

However, in the upcoming election, the presumptive Republican nominee is Arizona Senator John McCain. The Senator is less comfortable speaking on faith and values, and finds worthy adversaries there in Senators Obama and Clinton. Fiscally, the Republicans have demonstrated advantages for few Americans, and, under this administration’s watch, the economy has seen a downturn, and a possible recession.

For Senator McCain, this leaves the election uncertain. For President Bush, his legacy in Iraq, Afghanistan, and the rest of the Middle East in peril. (Surely a President so devoted to his campaign in the Middle East during his presidency would hate to see his efforts wasted?) Perhaps the best option the President has left for continuing attempts at democratization in the Middle East is diversionary war. An invasion and occupation of Iran at this stage of the Bush Presidency would almost ensure a need for the next President to remain in the Middle East for some time yet. Iraq and Afghanistan may be rectifiable; an invasion of Iran would likely produce instability many years into the future. (Certainly, it would detract from issues like health care and the environment in the upcoming election.)

In the event of such an invasion, it is clear which Presidential candidate would have the requisite experience to secure the election in November. Certainly Obama and Clinton’s lead over McCain in national polls would fall dramatically in the event that a future President is called on to lead a war, rather than to end one…